The report resurfaces that Lamar Jackson is fully guaranteed to give up $133 million

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On the first Sunday of the regular season, ESPN’s Chris Mortensen reported that Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson turned down a contract offer that would have paid him $133 million, fully guaranteed at signing. Recently, ESPN analyst Ryan Clark reported the same.

Here’s what we said in September, as it still applies. “The report has some gaps that make it impossible to fully evaluate the proposal. What would the cash flow be for the first year? How much of the contract would be guaranteed for injury? How much of the injury guarantee would have turned into a full guarantee in March 2023 because there’s no way they could cut him after just one year for what they would pay him in 2022?

It is impossible to fully evaluate a transaction without knowing its full value. Every payout, every guarantee, every disbursement deadline, every incentive, every escalator, every escalator, every training bonus, every roster bonus, every option bonus, every game roster bonus, and every other device that will make money flow. team to play.

It’s also irrelevant at this point. Circumstances have changed. Jackson’s rookie contract is over. He ended the season with an injury that caused him to miss more than a few games for the second year in a row.

Additionally, other long-term, big-money deals (such as those given to Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray) have likely become cautionary tales.

Would the Ravens make the same offer now? Will they offer more? Will they offer a little?

Are they content to let Lamar test the market under a non-exclusive franchise label? Will they match someone else’s offer? Would they be willing to trade a pair of first-round picks instead? Will they trade him for less than two?

These are the important questions now. Hearing again (and probably again) that he was offered $133 million fully guaranteed at signing means nothing in isolation, and it means even less given the passage of time.

So unless Lamar or the NFL Players Association or the Ravens are willing to reveal the full contents of any offer, it’s impossible for anyone to call the deal good or bad, fair or unfair, good or bad. While that won’t stop people from reporting incomplete facts about negotiations, past or present, those who see the information should remember that it’s impossible to judge the full deal without knowing (spoiler alert) the full deal.

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