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Here are my game predictions for Week 15 of the NFL. If you’re new to this series, I’m predicting the score of each game and the chance of victory for each team using my NFL betting model. The model pulls out older data and uses this year’s data as the season progresses.

My NFL Betting Model takes a wave of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those predictions are then used to project the spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance that the game covers the spread or the total. I use the “margin threshold” to decide what to bet on. My best bets for Week 15 can be found here.

If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, perhaps due to injury or other circumstances, I am not sure my model can win. If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments and I will answer as soon as possible.

NFL Week 15 Model Predictions

XMOV is the model’s predicted point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread listed to the right at the time of publication. XTOTAL is the total number of predicted points with the BetMGM total (over/under) shown to the right of the number as of the time of publication. All odds from BetMGM.

team xMOV: Spread out x TOTAL That’s all xWIN:

34.5%

-4.2:

-3.5:

46.5:

47.5:

65.5%

37.4%

-3.4:

-3:

39.0:

38:

62.6%

29.1%

-6.5:

-7:00

44.8:

44:

70.9%

35.0%

-4.0:

-3.5:

44.3:

43.5:

65.0%

-1.3:

-1.5

43.8:

43.5:

52.4%

47.6%

-13.2:

-14:00

48.3:

49.5:

85.3%

14.7%

-9.6:

-9:00

48.0:

48.5:

78.5%

21.5%

49.2%

-0.5

-3:

37.9:

37.5:

50.8%

-4.7:

-4:

47.5:

47.5:

66.6%

33.4%

47.9%

-1.2:

-1.5

37.5:

36.5:

52.1%

49.1%

-0.6

-1.5

44.4:

44.5:

50.9%

43.1%

-2.7:

-3:

46.3:

46.5:

56.9%

-3.5:

-3.5:

44.8:

45:00

63.4%

36.6%

33.8%

-4.5:

-4.5:

40.8:

40.5:

66.2%

28.0%

-6.7:

-7:00

39.6:

39.5:

72.0%

(Photo by Joe Burrow: Kareem Elgazzar/Getty Images)

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