Kyle Larson favored to win at Kansas

Can Kyle Larson go back-to-back at Kansas?

Larson enters Sunday’s race (3 pm ET, Fox Sports 1) as BetMGM’s favorite to win at +600. Larson won the fall 2021 race at Kansas Speedway on his way to winning the Cup Series title in a dominant season.

Larson was the fourth different Kansas winner in four races since Denny Hamlin won consecutive races at the track in the fall of 2019 and the spring of 2020. If Larson wins on Sunday, he’ll be the first non-Joe Gibbs Racing driver to go back-to-back at Kansas since Jeff Gordon won the first two races at the track in 2001 and 2002.

After Gordon won consecutive races, Matt Kenseth won his final race for Roush Fenway Racing in 2012 and then won for Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013. Martin Truex Jr. then swept both 2017 races at Kansas.

A win for Larson on Sunday would be his second of the season. He’s currently ninth in the Cup Series standings with five top fives and six top-10 finishes in 12 races. Ten drivers have finished in the top 10 in at least half of the races so far this season. Points leader Chase Elliott has the most top-10 finishes with nine in 12 races while Kyle Busch has eight.

Here’s what you need to know to bet Sunday’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.

Kyle Larson (5) races in the NASCAR Cup Series auto race at Dover Motor Speedway, Monday, May 2, 2022, in Dover, Del. (AP Photo / Jason Minto)

The favorites

  • Kyle Larson (+600)

  • Chase Elliott (+800)

  • Kyle Busch (+800)

  • Denny Hamlin (+900)

  • William Byron (+900)

Larson has six top-10 finishes in 14 starts at Kansas. Elliott has finished in the top 10 eight times in 12 starts and has one win at the track. Kyle Busch got his second win at Kansas in the 2021 spring race and has finished outside the top 11 just twice since he was 15th in the 2014 spring race at the track. Denny Hamlin is one of three drivers with three wins at the track while Byron has finished in the top 10 in his last five starts at Kansas.

Good mid-tier value

  • Joey Logano (+1200)

  • Tyler Reddick (+1600)

We went with Joey Logano over Team Penske teammate Ryan Blaney in this category because of his past Kansas success. Logano is one of those drivers with three wins and has ten top-10 finishes in 25 starts. Reddick has finished in the top 13 in three of his five starts at Kansas and could be a contender for the pole on Saturday.

Do not bet this driver

Harvick has the best average finish of any driver at Kansas Speedway at 8.9 and has also won three races there. And while we’re pretty confident in his chances of a top 10 finish on Sunday, he hasn’t shown the speed needed to win a race so far this season.

Looking for a long shot?

Almirola has never finished better than sixth at Kansas in 20 starts. But he has four top-10 finishes so far in 2022 and is 12th in the standings. You can rarely get odds as long as this on a driver that high up in the standings.

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