Two years ago, White Sox Undrafted Carlos Rodon because they didn’t think he was worth a $4.45 million salary bump. He had no place in their rotation. Anyone could sign it. Chicago brought him back with a salary cut of up to $3 million.
Twenty-four months later, the Yankees made Rodon the third most expensive left-handed pitcher in history. New York and Rodon agreed to the first six-year contract for a pitcher since 2019, worth $162 million, an average annual value of $27 million. David Price and Clayton Kershaw are the only lefties to sign contracts with greater total and average annual values. Rodon, 30, has only played two qualifying seasons.
The startling turnaround is the result of Rodon’s rededication to what he unkindly calls an “alarm clock” and reinventing himself. With better mechanics and added mass and speed, Rodon threw higher fastballs than any MLB pitcher last season. The four-seamer averaged 95.5 mph, up from 92.8 in 2020 when the White Sox didn’t relieve him.
Rodon also capitalized on several market forces; Inflation in the first full free agency since signing CBA and to put pressure on the Yankees. Astros … and Big.
Rodon is a statistical clone of left-hander Robbie Ray when Ray hit the market last season. Both were 30-man free agents. Ray was coming off a Cy Young season. Ray was the more durable pitcher. In his career, Ray was 62–58 with a 4.00 ERA, a 110 ERA+ and a 2.85 strikeout-to-walk rate. Rodon was 56–46 with a 3.60 ERA, a 115 ERA+ and a 2.97 strikeout-to-walk rate. Ray pitched more innings, 1,035 ⅔ to 847 ⅓, in part because Rodon had Tommy John surgery in 2019.
Ray signed for five years and $115 million. Rodon surpassed that mark by one year and $47 million.
Most of the market leaders this winter have been led by teams tired of championship droughts, such as the Mets, Rangers and: Padres. In their unique historical context, the Yankees also fit into that group, having last won a World Series in 2009.
After being swept by Houston in the ALCS last season, the third time in six years that New York fell short of the Astros, the Yankees knew that in addition to re-signing Aaron Judge, they had to find a starter who had been in the rotation and missed. one that sets up postseason play. After Jacob deGrom and Justin Verlander, Rodon was the best option in free agency, the only lefty and the younger of those two righties.
Since Aaron Boone became manager, the Yankees’ starting lineup is 9–9 in 31 postseason games, including only six quality starts, four of them by Gerrit Cole. Rodon is essentially an upgrade on Jameson Taillon, who signed him Puppiesand joins Cole, Nestor Cortez Jr., Luis Severino and Frankie Montas in the New York rotation.
Rodon was 14–8 with a 2.88 ERA Giants career-high 178 innings pitched last season. The Yankees haven’t pitched this many innings against a lefty since CC Sabathia in 2016. Rodon led the league with 12 strikeouts in nine innings.
Rodon’s newfound ability to throw the ball past people is the single biggest reason the Yankees signed him. Losing to Houston in the ALCS, it was the most egregious difference between the two clubs. The Yankee pitcher has only 25 strikeouts in four games. Astros pitchers hit 50.
The Yankees are betting more on Rodon’s clean stuff than his career record. For example, in 2019 Rodon threw his fastball an average of 2.59 feet off the ground (roughly in the middle zone) and hitters hit it an average of .350. Last year, he threw it an average of 3.05 feet off the ground from the top of the strike zone. Only Cristian Javier of the Astros had a higher average height on his heater. And it worked out well and often for Rodon. Throwing 61% heaters, he allowed a .213 average on the field.
After no fever, in addition to added muscle, Rodon revised his delivery. He “sat” more on the bent back leg, subverted the short, crossover step with a longer, linear stride, and drove his head toward the plate, switching to the front leg. It became a classic power pitcher delivery, with accessories to match. After an attrition with the Sox in 2021 (132 ⅔ innings), Rodon is coming off his best season with the Giants this year.
Rodon’s fastball has dipped slightly over the last two months, from 95.9 to 94.9 mph. And he’s shown extreme ballpark chops, with a 1.93 ERA at Oracle Park and a 3.73 ERA on the road. He threw 16 quality starts, tied for 31st in the majors.
Make no mistake. The Yankees are making a six-year bet that this version of Rodon is sustainable, and that he can not only help them reach the postseason, but through it. They trampled their cross-town rivals, the Mets, spending nearly half a billion dollars and blowing every level of competitive residual taxes. With a nine-year commitment to Judge and a six-year commitment to Rodon, the Yankees have $128 million in just Judge, Cole, Giancarlo Stanton and Rodon in 2027, when they will each be 35 to 38 years old.
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