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Bitcoin price continues to consolidate in a narrow range as it failed to overcome a significant level of resistance to the upside a few days ago. However, from a technical analysis point of view, the time for a decisive breakthrough is near.

Technical analysis

By: Edris

Daily table

On the daily chart, the price is still consolidating with a large bearish wedge. These are commonly known as potential bullish reversal patterns in a bear market, provided they break to the upside.

However, last week’s rejection of the $18K resistance level and the 50-day moving average has halted the rally to the higher boundary of the pattern. As a result, it probably dropped to the $15K support level and the lower trendline of the wedge.

Given today’s bullish daily candle, a retest of the 50-day moving average, currently around the $17K mark, seems likely. The short-term future of the BTC price will be determined by the outcome of this experiment.

Source: TradingView

4-hour chart

Looking at the 4-hour timeframe, it’s clear that price is recovering, but major issues are emerging, returning above $16,800 after last week’s decline.

A break above the $16,800 level would suggest a retest of the broken uptrend. On the other hand, a failure above $16,800 is likely to suggest a bearish continuation towards the key $15,000 area.

A recent short-term bullish move was signaled by the RSI indicator as a clear divergence formed between the last two price lows.

However, the oscillator is currently showing values ​​around 50%, hinting at neutral momentum and giving little indication of the likely direction of the trend in the short term as the market continues to witness a fragile balance between buyers and sellers.

btc_price_chart_201203
Source: TradingView

Onchain analysis

By: Shayan

The following chart includes the Long Term Holder SOPR (Block formula) and the price of Bitcoin.

The long-term trailing profit ratio is the ratio of the trailing results (over 155 days) to the profit at the time the window opens. Values ​​greater than “1” indicate that more long-term investors are selling at a profit, while values ​​below “1” mean that more long-term investors are selling at a loss.

During the price recovery, the figure tripled, from $16,000 to approximately $18,400. It also made a significant jump after Bitcoin rallied to the crucial $18K resistance level.

This indicates that long-term holders see every price increase as an opportunity to unload their assets and take profits.

This is typical behavior in the late stages of a bear market. However, the next bull run will not begin until this group stops their asset allocation and starts accumulating BTC at higher rates.

btc_sopr_chart_201201
Source: TradingView
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Cryptocurrency Charts by TradingView.



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