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After a tumultuous 2022, crypto investors are trying to figure out when Bitcoin’s next bull could be.

Last week at a crypto conference in St. Moritz, Switzerland, CNBC spoke with industry insiders who painted a picture of 2023 as a year of caution. Bitcoin: It is expected to trade in a range, be sensitive to macroeconomic conditions such as rising interest rates and remain volatile. A new bull run in 2023 is unlikely.

Still, experts are optimistic about next year and beyond.

In 2022, the entire cryptocurrency market lost an estimated $1.4 trillion in value as the industry faced liquidity problems and bankruptcies, culminating in the collapse of the FTX exchange. The infection has spread to industry.

While bitcoin has rallied modestly at the start of the year, in line with riskier assets such as stocks, experts say it is unlikely to retest its all-time high of just under $69,000, but could fall.

“I think there is a little bit more downside, but I don’t think there will be much,” venture capitalist and crypto veteran Bill Tye told CNBC last week.

“There is a possibility [bitcoin] kind of went down here,” adding that it could drop to $12,000 before bouncing back.

Meltem Demirors, chief strategist at CoinShares, said bitcoin is likely to perform at the bottom between $15,000 and $20,000 and at the top between $25,000 and $30,000.

He said that most of the “forced selling” that occurred in 2022 market collapses is now over, but there isn’t much new money in bitcoin.

“I don’t think there’s much forced selling left, which is optimistic,” Demirors told CNBC on Friday. “But again, I think the upside is pretty limited because we’re not seeing a lot of new inflows either.”

Investors also keep an eye on the macroeconomic situation. Bitcoin has proven to be closely related to risky assets such as stocks and technology in particular. Nasdaq:. These assets are affected by changes in Federal Reserve interest rates and other macroeconomic changes. Last year, the Fed embarked on an aggressive course of raising interest rates in an attempt to tame the inflation that has been hurting risk assets along with bitcoin.

Industry insiders say a change in the macro situation could help bitcoin.

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“There could be catalysts that we’re not aware of, again, the macro situation and the political environment is quite uncertain, inflation remains quite hot, I think that’s a new thing. We haven’t seen it, you know, after 30, 40 years,” said Demirors.

“So who knows, as people look to make allocations in the new year, where crypto will fit into that portfolio?”

Timeline for the Next Bitcoin Bull Run

In interviews with CNBC, several industry participants talked about historical bitcoin cycles that occur roughly every four years. Typically, Bitcoin will hit an all-time high and then experience a massive correction. There will be a bad year and then a year of mild recovery.

Then “half” will happen. This is when miners, who run specialized machines to efficiently validate transactions on Bitcoin networks, see their mining rewards cut in half. Miners receive Bitcoin as a reward for validating transactions. The halving, which occurs every four years, effectively slows down the supply of bitcoin to the market. Only 21 million bitcoins will ever be in circulation.

A halving typically precedes a bull run. The next semiannual event takes place in 2024.

Scaramucci called 2023 the “recovery year” of bitcoin and predicted that within two to three years it could sell for $50,000 to $100,000.

“You take a risk, but you also believe in it [bitcoin] acceptance. So if we get the adoption right, and I believe we will, this could easily be a fifty to a hundred thousand dollar asset over the next two to three years,” Scaramucci said.

Meanwhile, Tye said the start of the bull run is “probably a year away,” saying the effects of the FTX collapse could be felt for another six to nine months.

Jean-Baptiste Graftieaux, global CEO of cryptocurrency exchange Bitstamp, told CNBC last week that the next surge could happen within the next two years, citing increased interest from institutional investors.

However, Demirors warned that the events of 2022 had “taken a huge toll on the sector and the asset class”, adding that “it will take some time for that confidence to return”.

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