There are no signs of year-end holiday season volatility in cryptocurrency markets. This suggests that both bulls and bears are playing well and not making big bets due to uncertainty about the next directional move. This indecisive phase is unlikely to last long, as periods of low volatility are usually followed by increased volatility.
Willy Woo, creator of chain analytics resource Woobull, expects the duration of the current bear market to be “longer than 2018 but shorter than 2015.”
The crypto-winter resulted in a loss of more than $116 billion in the personal capital of 17 investors and founders in the field of cryptocurrencies, according to Forbes estimates. The carnage was so brutal that the names of 10 investors were removed from the list of crypto-billionaires.
Could the bear market go deeper, or is it showing signs of a relief rally? Let’s take a look at Bitcoin (BTC) charts and select altcoins to find out.
Bitcoin has been trading in a narrow range near the 20-day exponential moving average ($16,929) for the past few days. This shows that the bears are defending the level, but the bulls haven’t given up yet.
This period of calm is unlikely to last long and the BTC/USDT pair may soon witness a range widening. In general, it is difficult to predict the direction of the breakout, so it is better to wait for the pair to make a decisive move before starting directional bets.
If the price breaks above the moving average, the possibility of an upward resistance at $18,388 increases. This level could again act as a major obstacle, but if the bulls break through in force, momentum could build and the pair could reach $20,000.
A break below $16,256 on the way down could signal that the bears are in control. Sellers will then try to bring the pair down to vital support of $15,476.
Both moving averages on the 4-hour chart have flattened, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just below the center. This suggests limited action in the near future. The limits of the range could be $17,061 for the upside and $16,256 for the downside.
A break above $17,061 would indicate that the bulls have come out on top and this could initiate a short-term uptrend. On the other hand, a break below $16,256 suggests that bears have strengthened their positions.
Ether (ETH) has been clinging to the 20-day EMA ($1,228) for the past few days. This suggests that traders expect a break above this upper resistance.
The 20-day EMA is flattening and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between buyers and sellers. If the bulls push the price above the moving average, the ETH/USDT pair could attract further buying. The pair may then rally to $1,352 and later to a downtrend. This level can again act as a formidable resistance.
Conversely, if price fails to break above the moving average, a few short-term traders may sell aggressively. This could bring the price towards a strong support of $1,150. If this level breaks, the head and shoulders pattern may end. That could open the way for a potential downside to $1,075 and then $948.
The 4-hour chart shows that the recovery is facing a resistance zone between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1,227 and the 50% retracement level at $1,251. If the price breaks down and breaks below $1,180, the pair could retest the important support at $1,150.
Conversely, if the price breaks above $1,251, the rally could reach the 61.8% retracement level of $1,275. If the bulls manage to overcome this hurdle, the pair could complete a 100% recovery to $1,352.
Toncoin (TON) has been consolidating in an uptrend over the past few days. Although the bears stopped the rally at $2.90, the small positive is that the bulls did not give up large positions. This suggests buying a dive.
A rising 20-day EMA ($2.25) and an RSI in positive territory indicate that bulls have the upper hand. If buyers push the price above $2.50, the TON/USDT pair could rise to $2.65 and then retest $2.90.
Bears will likely have other plans as they try to push the price below the 20-day EMA and consolidate their position. There is a small support at $2.15, but if it doesn’t hold, the pair could decline to the 50-day SMA ($1.91).
The pair formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This shows the indecision between bulls and bears. Flat moving averages and an RSI near the midpoint also do not give anyone a clear advantage.
The first sign of strength will be a break and close above the triangle resistance line. This could start a rally to $2.90. If this level scales, an upside move could reach the $3.24 pattern target.
If the price breaks below the 50-SMA or the resistance line of the triangle, it suggests that the pair may extend its stay inside the triangle. A break below the support line could indicate that the bears are back in control.
Related to: The 5 Most Important Crypto Regulatory Developments in 2022
XMR / USDT:
Over the past few days, Monero (XMR) has failed to break above the bearish wedge resistance line, but a positive sign is that the bulls are trying to hold the price above the 50-day SMA ($140).
The moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the center. This indicates a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks above the 20-day EMA ($144), buyers will try to take advantage by pushing the XMR/USDT pair above the wedge. If this happens, the pair could rise to $174. A break above this level could signal a possible trend reversal.
On the other hand, if the price falls below $138, the advantage may tilt in favor of the bears. The pair could then fall to $125.
The pair bounced back from strong support at $138.50 and the bulls are trying to push the price above the moving average. If they succeed, the pair could rise to a downtrend, where the bears could once again establish a strong defense.
If the price breaks below the bearish line, the bears will try to pull the pair to $138.50. This is an important level to watch in the near term, as a break below it could complete a descending triangle pattern. The pair could then drop to $132 and then to the pattern target of $124.
On the upside, a break above the bearish line could invalidate the bearish setup and open the way for a possible rally to $153.
OKB / USDT
Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges have been in the eye of the storm since the collapse of FTX, but OKB ( OKB ) is nearing the end of a bullish reversal pattern. That is the reason for his selection in the list.
The OKB/USDT pair has formed a large head and shoulders reversal pattern that will end on a break and close above $23.22. Both moving averages are trending up and the RSI is in positive territory, indicating that the path of least resistance is up.
If the price rises above the psychological level of $25, the pair can start a new rally to $28, then $31. The target of the reversal formation pattern is $36. This positive view can be invalidated if the price breaks below the current level and falls below the moving average. The pair could then drop to $17.
The pair has formed an ascending triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart. This bullish setup will end on the break and close above $24.15. If this happens, the pair could start a new uptrend towards the $31 pattern target.
Alternatively, if the price breaks down and breaks below the triangle, it will invalidate the bullish setup. That could trigger stops from aggressive buyers who might have taken long positions in anticipation of a break. The pair can then slide down to $20.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk and readers should do their own research when making a decision.