This is an opinion editorial by Mickey Koss, a West Point graduate with a degree in economics. He spent four years in the infantry before transferring to the Finance Corps.
It’s barely a week into 2023 and I’ve seen Anthony “Pomp” Pompliano debate Michael Shellenberger and Joe Rogan in an interview with Peter Zeehan. While these media impressions may not be related to each other, there is a common thread between the two, with experts from various fields expressing confidently uninformed opinions about Bitcoin.
Ziehan’s misunderstandings can be heard during the last 20 minutes of the interview. In fact, our friend Guy Swan just recorded a nearly 90-minute episode of Bitcoin Audible dedicated to breaking down Ziehand’s analysis. Cafe Bitcoin did the same recently in the first half of the January 9, 2023 episode.
Shellenberger made it a little easier to find his misunderstandings by apparently going on Pomp’s podcast for the sole purpose of demonstrating his complete and utter ignorance.
I think one of the most appropriate questions to follow up on these conversations is: How are either of these two gentlemen qualified to make such assessments in the first place?
How could someone feel so comfortable saying something they obviously know so little about? If these two are so confident in patently wrong and ignorant opinions, why should I trust them in anything else?
While discussing these two interviews in a small group, one of the members said something that inspired the idea behind this article.
“For now, they both feel safe in their claims. In the next bull cycle, these clips will come back to haunt them and erode their confidence.”
–Alex BrammerMember of the Board of Directors of the Bitcoin Today Coalition (BTC).
He even turned that sentiment into a tweet, which can be seen below.
A characteristic characteristic of Bitcoins is their low time preference; a willingness to sacrifice short-term comfort for long-term gain as opposed to following every whim.
These individuals are the personification of what the fiat system does to people, a symptom of what happens when money stops sending clear price signals. Their time preference has been so skewed that they willingly sacrifice their long-term credibility for short-term notoriety. They do it thoughtlessly, without understanding what they’re even criticizing, let alone the long-term consequences of what they’re saying. They do it because they have to, so they don’t get dismissed as simpletons like the rest of us.
Whatever happened to just saying “I don’t know”? Perhaps most importantly, what happens when all these naysayers are not only proven wrong, but completely, spectacularly, and absolutely wrong in every way?
I predict that in the coming months and years, those who chose to speak out will quickly begin to lose any semblance of credibility they once had.
Gell-Mann’s treatment of amnesia is absurd
“Succinctly stated, the Gell-Mann amnesia effect is: You open the paper to an article you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. I know, in show business. You read the article and you see that the journalist absolutely does not understand either the facts or the issues. Often the article is so wrong that it actually presents history backwards, reversing cause and effect. I call them “wet streets cause rain” stories. The paper is full of them.
“Either way, you read the many errors in the story with anger or amusement, then turn to the national or international affairs page and read as if the rest of the paper is somehow more accurate about Palestine than the blurb you just read. You turn the page and forget what you know.’
– Michael Crichton
Bitcoin is the orange pill that wakes you up from the matrix, yes, but what if the story gets too ridiculous? What if the criticisms and complaints become so patently wrong that these so-called experts are no longer respected, let alone listened to?
I was a fan of Ziehan. I found his books interesting and informative. They appeared well thought out and thoroughly researched. But after that interview, I don’t know what to think. After listening to his speech, before even hearing his critique of Bitcoin, all I really heard was quasi-automatic; a character well rehearsed speaking in polished sound bites. His Bitcoin analysis was so smooth, well laid out and confident. Man, was he confident? And everything he said was absolutely wrong.
I see the next few years as an abyss of dissolution for the current pundits. Much like the economist uncle in the dystopian tale The Mandibles, these experts will have answers for everything, but won’t be able to explain anything. Slowly but surely people will realize that the world these “experts” have created in their theoretical minds no longer exists. Reality will eventually perish.
But you don’t have to wait for that.
When you understand Bitcoin, you understand that the long-term price is slowly approaching infinity as central banks gradually, then suddenly, add monetary units to the system to manipulate the value of the capital as they see fit.
Saving with Bitcoin can be a bumpy road for those who don’t see the value yet, but in my eyes it’s the safest thing I have. As I sit to reflect on this tumultuous bear market week, I feel like I’ve never been more bullish than I am right now.
This is a guest post by Mickey Koss. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC Inc or Bitcoin Magazine.