Florida metros account for six of the nation’s 10 most overvalued housing markets, according to a recent report by researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.
Cape Coral-Fort Myers ranks No. 1, with buyers paying 62.29 percent more than they should, based on sales history in that market. Other Florida markets in the top 10 are: No. 2 Deltona (55.51 percent premium); No. 4: Palm Bay-Melbourne (54.55 percent); No. 6 Tampa (53.54 percent); No. 7 Lakeland (51.99 percent); and No. 10 North Port-Bradenton (48.41).
The only other metros in the top 10 are: No. 3 Atlanta (54.88 percent); No. 5 Charlotte (54.04 percent); No. 8 Boise, Idaho (50.83 percent); and No. 9 Las Vegas (48.71 percent).
The full ranking table with interactive graphics can be found here.
Researchers rank the 100 largest metro areas using publicly available data from online real estate portal Zillow or other providers. The data, which spans January 1996 through the end of last month, includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and cooperatives.
In the first ranking, in August 2021, there are no Florida metros in the top 10.
“It used to be that you didn’t need a big salary to buy a home in the Sunshine State, but those days are over as this has become a market primarily for move-up buyers and empty nesters,” says Ken H. Johnson. , Ph.D., real estate economist in FAU’s College of Business. “Florida’s relatively low incomes should make housing affordability a key issue for a long time.”
Prospective Florida buyers, hoping the market is cooling, are unlikely to see prices drop as sharply as they did between 2006 and 2012, says Eli Beracha, Ph.D., of FSU’s Hollo School of Real Estate.
“We don’t expect housing prices to drop dramatically because our high rents are contributing to current prices,” Beracha said. “Florida is a very difficult market to break into right now unless you have a professional salary or income from selling a home in another state.”
Markets with growing populations and a severe shortage of homes for sale will have less of a negative impact on prices, while other areas with stagnant or declining populations and more homes on the market could experience significant price declines, the researchers said.
The researchers’ rating does not take into account how expensive the market has traditionally been. High-value areas like New York and San Francisco are among the least overvalued because homes in those metros are selling relatively close to where they should be based on historical trends.