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Bitcoin (BTC) failed to stage a Santa Claus rally for Christmas 2023 as December 25th suggested more sideways BTC price action.

BTC/USD 1-Hour Candlestick Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

The Bitcoin Volatility Index has hit an all-time low

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD clinging to a tight trading range around $16,800.

The pair stubbornly refused to offer any form of volatility for most of the week as the macro trigger was absent, reinforcing lackluster performance.

“Bitcoin’s volatility is at an all-time low,” said William Clemente, founder of crypto research firm Reflexivity. noted Next to the Bitcoin historical volatility index chart.

Bitcoin historical volatility index 1-week candle chart. Source: TradingView

He added that the overall crypto market cap has retraced all of its gains from the 2017 highs and is now testing those highs as support.

Crypto market cap 1 month candle chart. Source: TradingView

Meanwhile, trader and analyst Phoenix with eyes similarities to Christmas 2018, right after Bitcoin’s last bear market during its previous semi-annual cycle.

He showed that the time between the previous all-time high and the Christmas low a year later was very similar, with 117 bars and 137 candles in 2018 and 2022, respectively, on the 3-day chart.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Phoenix/ Twitter

The worst expected in the 1st quarter?

Looking ahead, Bugsy’s popular analytics account had similarly uninspiring news for hodlers heading into 2023.

Related to: Christmas dinner table. What to tell your family about what happened in crypto this year?

Next year he predictionBTC/USD will not be able to break above $25,000, leaving the real recovery to the semi-annual 2024.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Bagsy/Twitter

Even less optimistic was analyst Tony Guinea, who on Christmas Eve doubled down on his theory that the next quarter would produce the next bear market.

This, however, left room for a final sprint to $19,000 in the last week of the year.

“Last bull trap at 17.5-19k in Dec-Jan. Final crash to 11-14k in Q1 2023,” he. predicted.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Tony Guinea/ Twitter

The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.